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	<title>The Conrad Group</title>
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		<title>The Conrad Group&#8217;s William Nobrega Speaks to Investment &amp; Pensions Asia about the CNH market in China</title>
		<link>http://conradgroupinc.com/media-coverage/the-conrad-groups-william-nobrega-speaks-to-investment-pensions-asia-about-the-cnh-market-in-china</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Aug 2011 14:50:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Media Coverage]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p><strong>This article originally appeared in Investment &#38; Pensions Asia.</strong></p>
<p>By Iain Mills</p>
<p>26 August 2011</p>
<p>There have been more Chinese currency-related developments this week, including an announcement by the Ministry of Commerce that RMB-denominated foreign direct investment into China may&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>This article originally appeared in Investment &amp; Pensions Asia.</strong></p>
<p>By Iain Mills</p>
<p>26 August 2011</p>
<p>There have been more Chinese currency-related developments this week, including an announcement by the Ministry of Commerce that RMB-denominated foreign direct investment into China may be allowed as soon as September. This follows on from Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang&#8217;s visit to Hong Kong last week, a move some are comparing with Deng Xiaoping&#8217;s legendary tour of the South in 1992.</p>
<p>Li announced a range of measures to support the development of the SAR as an offshore renminbi (CNH) centre. “The two most notable aspects of Li&#8217;s visit to Hong Kong were a commitment to steady capital account liberalization and, more significantly, the fact they came from China&#8217;s likely next Premier,” Ashley Davies, a senior economist and foreign exchange strategist at Commerzbank AG, tells IPA. “We see this as an endorsement by a key individual in the reform process. It is evidence that the process can continue under the new leadership, and the transition may not be as disruptive as some have predicted for CNH development.”</p>
<p>Among the measures, Li announced a RMB20 billion pilot scheme to allow foreign investors to buy mainland stocks and bonds, the nationwide expansion of the RMB trade scheme, the expansion of central government bond issuances offshore, a Hong Kong equity-based Exchange-Traded Fund and market entry for Hong Kong insurers into the mainland. Li also announced a pilot permitting non-financial firms to raise capital offshore, a privilege previously reserved for mainland banks.</p>
<p>“The new guidelines, in essence, will greatly simplify not only the procedures to raise capital from the CNH pool but also the procedures to bring the proceeds back for non-financial investment,” according to a note by Z-Ben Advisers.</p>
<p>“For the investment management sector, short-term opportunities will likely be limited to the alternative space, specifically private equity and venture capital investments. Even though PE/VC investments will still have to obtain approval from the MoC, raising RMB funds offshore might be easier for many foreign General Partners compared to doing so domestically or conversion through the nascent Qualified Foreign Limited Partnerships programme.”</p>
<p>“Getting direct access to A-shares, however, would require similar procedural clarification from both China Securities Regulatory Commission and State Administration of Foreign Exchange. We expect these new regulations to come out, albeit in a pilot programme, sooner rather than later,” Z-Ben says in the note.</p>
<p>The flurry of announcements follows a summer of uncertainty in the CNH markets. Following 12 months of rapid, largely uncontrolled growth, Beijing took steps to tighten market control. A moratorium was placed on mainland companies seeking financing offshore, and greater efforts were made to ensure offshore-onshore flows are for legitimate trade settlements only. In June, CNH deposits collapsed to RMB4.8 billion against the 12 average monthly increase of RMB46 billion, a decline attributed to changing trade flows between Hong Kong and the mainland.</p>
<p>“The government has been trying to push back and put up barriers to onshore inflationary pressures of late,” William Nobrega, managing partner at the Conrad Group, says. “For example, it has not been allowing property bonds for investment in China, and there are issues regarding repatriation of funds. But this should change once inflation is in check, and there are signs that this point is approaching. Moreover, Chinese policymakers will be increasingly concerned by the U.S. and global slowdown and this could alter the tightening agenda.”</p>
<p>Nobrega also strikes a bullish tone on the prospects for further liberalization. “We expect the RMB to become fully convertible and backed by a basket of precious metals. CNH will be the cornerstone of this evolutionary process. There may be bumps along the way, but really this is a once in a life-time opportunity and we are living history.”</p>
<p>Others, such as Joel Hu, a currency specialist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, takes a more cautionary tone. &#8220;It is important not to misunderstand Premier Li&#8217;s visit. It does not mean faster liberalization of the capital account. China won&#8217;t deviate from its path of gradual reforms and it will be a long time before we see full liberalisation.&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8220;There is obviously large demand for CNH from investors as an appreciation play. But China must balance offshore and onshore interest. If the CNH market doesn&#8217;t develop rationally, this could have damaging effects for onshore economic development. Domestic economic stability will remain the top priority,&#8221; Hu adds.</p>
<p>In the mean time, the renminbi’s attraction as an appreciation play looks set to remain, both short term and directionally, according to Commerzbank&#8217;s Davies.</p>
<p>“It&#8217;s instructive that the yuan’s recent appreciation has occurred while other currencies are depreciating,” he observes, referring to the Chinese currency&#8217;s 0.9% appreciation against the U.S. dollar in the last month.  “This is in stark contrast to 2008 when the response to global volatility was to reinstate the peg. In our view, this is to take advantage of a relatively low level of speculative global capital flows. Under normalised conditions, there could be a lot more hot money, so China wants to take advantage of this window to allow a period of appreciation.”</p>
<p>In the longer term, Davies is also more bullish than consensus. “We are calling for accelerated capital account liberalisation in late 2012 to early 2013. A major part of my thinking when advising a client to be long RMB on a two-year time-frame would be that a period of rapid appreciation is very likely.”</p>
<p>Still, “there won&#8217;t be any short term reduction in ambiguity. Until we reach full liberalisation of the capital account, there will conflicting policy views on the desirability of CNH,” he warns.</p>
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		<title>The Conrad Group&#8217;s William Nobrega speaks to BBC News about the debt crisis in Washington</title>
		<link>http://conradgroupinc.com/media-coverage/the-conrad-groups-william-nobrega-speaks-to-bbc-news-about-the-debt-crisis-in-washington</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Aug 2011 20:26:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Media Coverage]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p id="story_continues_1"><strong>This article originally appeared in BBC News.</strong></p>
<p>By Juliana Liu</p>
<p>2 August 2011</p>
<p><em>Washington may have averted a debt default by compromising on how to cut the US budget deficit, but underlying problems remain and those economic woes are</em>&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p id="story_continues_1"><strong>This article originally appeared in BBC News.</strong></p>
<p>By Juliana Liu</p>
<p>2 August 2011</p>
<p><em>Washington may have averted a debt default by compromising on how to cut the US budget deficit, but underlying problems remain and those economic woes are driving a global search for an alternative reserve currency.</em></p>
<p>Officials, from the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the Philippines finance minister, have warned that the US dollar may lose its reserve status.</p>
<p>For China, the largest lender to the US and the world&#8217;s second biggest economy, the answer is close to home.</p>
<p>&#8220;I think the US debt crisis adds new urgency to the Chinese government&#8217;s efforts to promote the yuan as an international currency,&#8221; Zhang Ming, a Beijing-based scholar at the Chinese Academy of Social Science (Cass), tells BBC News.</p>
<p>&#8220;Promoting the international use of the yuan will become a way to reduce the country&#8217;s reliance on the value of US Treasuries.&#8221;</p>
<p>China holds more than $3.2trillion (20.6tn yuan; £2tn) in foreign exchange reserves, of which 70% is estimated to be in US dollars.</p>
<p>As the dollar falls in value against the Chinese yuan and other currencies around the world, because of the US&#8217;s financial problems, Beijing faces losses on its holdings.</p>
<p>And that threat may worsen if any of the world&#8217;s three main credit rating agencies decide to downgrade their triple-A rating for US sovereign debt.</p>
<h2>Greenback or redback?</h2>
<p>Mr Zhang, who is deputy director of the Research Center for International Finance at Cass, says the global financial crisis of 2008 was the main external reason behind Beijing&#8217;s efforts to promote the yuan beyond its borders.</p>
<p id="story_continues_2">&#8220;Before the outbreak of the sub-prime crisis, the US dollar was considered a stable international reserve currency,&#8221; he says.</p>
<p>In July 2009, less than a year after the collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers, Beijing announced a pilot programme allowing some companies to settle imports and exports with yuan.</p>
<p>That programme was expanded a year later, and continues to grow rapidly, though it is still only a tiny portion of China&#8217;s overall trade.</p>
<p>According to UBS Securities, trade settlement in the Chinese currency rose from just 18.4bn yuan ($2.86bn; £1.95bn) in the first three months of 2010 to 360bn yuan in the first three months of 2011.</p>
<p>China has signed so-called currency swap deals with Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia and Argentina, among others.</p>
<p>That means companies outside the mainland can borrow large amounts of yuan for doing business.</p>
<p>In August 2010, McDonald&#8217;s became the first foreign company outside the banking sector to issue yuan-denominated bonds, popularly known as dim sum bonds, in Hong Kong.</p>
<p>A massive, actively-traded debt market is a pre-requisite for any currency to become a reserve currency.</p>
<h2>Relocations</h2>
<p>In its efforts to promote the yuan, Beijing has chosen Hong Kong to be the principal launch pad.</p>
<p>According to the Royal Bank of Scotland, more than $70bn in yuan deposits are being held in the former British colony, and those assets are growing quickly.</p>
<p id="story_continues_3">Financial services veterans like William Nobrega from the US are taking notice.</p>
<p>He has just relocated his emerging markets consultancy, the Conrad Group, from Miami to Hong Kong in order to develop yuan-denominated bonds.</p>
<p>&#8220;We see the RMB (yuan) as an alternative to the US dollar,&#8221; he says.</p>
<p>&#8220;If the US suddenly developed the courage to have a massive reduction in our debt and massive investment in infrastructure and education, we would remain the world&#8217;s pre-eminent reserve currency, but, that&#8217;s probably not going to happen.&#8221;</p>
<p>Mr Nobrega&#8217;s clients include fund manager Craig Turnbull, chief executive of Agincourt Capital, who moved from London to Hong Kong in June in order to sell dim sum bonds.</p>
<p>His fund aims to raise $500m Australian dollars (US$542m; £333m) by the end of September, followed by another A$500m next year, for investment in Australian property.</p>
<p>Mr Turnbull&#8217;s investors would pay in yuan, which he believes will one day become a viable reserve currency.</p>
<p>&#8220;What is a reserve currency? Confidence is what it&#8217;s all about. It is, essentially, belief in the currency and the economy behind it,&#8221; he says.</p>
<h2>Long march</h2>
<p>For that, China will have to do more than simply maintain double-digit economic growth.</p>
<p>&#8220;The bottom line is that it is still too early for the RMB to become a major reserve currency,&#8221; says Wang Tao, an economist at UBS Securities.</p>
<p>She says that in addition to being widely accepted for trade, the yuan must also be widely used for finance and investment, which would imply the need for a much larger debt market.</p>
<p>That, in turn, means Beijing would have to allow lending and borrowing rates to more fully reflect market realities, rather than be so tightly controlled by the state.</p>
<p>Of course, the yuan would also have to be fully convertible for both trade and investment, and it must be allowed to float freely against other currencies.</p>
<p>And much more difficult than economic reforms, Beijing may have to consider making profound changes to its political system.</p>
<p>Global investors will demand transparent decision-making and government institutions, something China is far from achieving.</p>
<p>It is difficult to say exactly how long the entire process will take, but it could be a long march.</p>
<p>To view the original article, please click <a href="http://conradgroupinc.com/dev/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/BBC-News-8.02.11.pdf">here</a>.</p>
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		<title>The Conrad Group&#8217;s William Nobrega speaks to The Wall Street Journal about Agincourt Capital&#8217;s RMB fund</title>
		<link>http://conradgroupinc.com/media-coverage/the-conrad-groups-william-nobrega-speaks-to-the-wall-street-journal-about-agincourt-capitals-rmb-fund</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Aug 2011 20:16:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Media Coverage]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://conradgroupinc.com/?p=1332</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<h3><span style="font-weight: normal; font-size: 13px;"><strong>This article originally appeared in the Wall Street Journal.</strong></span></h3>
<p>By Fiona Law</p>
<p>HONG KONG—A U.K.-based asset-management start-up plans to sell what could be the first offshore yuan-denominated convertible bond, and intends to invest the money in Australia&#8217;s booming real-estate market.&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><span style="font-weight: normal; font-size: 13px;"><strong>This article originally appeared in the Wall Street Journal.</strong></span></h3>
<p>By Fiona Law</p>
<p>HONG KONG—A U.K.-based asset-management start-up plans to sell what could be the first offshore yuan-denominated convertible bond, and intends to invest the money in Australia&#8217;s booming real-estate market.</p>
<p>Agincourt Capital Management seeks to raise the equivalent of about US$1 billion from the five-year bond, which would be convertible into equity in Agincourt, said Craig Turnbull, the firm&#8217;s founder and investment director. The bonds would be payable in Australian dollars</p>
<p>It would be the first yuan-denominated convertible bond sold outside of mainland China, Mr. Turnbull said, joining a flood of &#8220;dim sum&#8221; offshore yuan bonds seeking to capitalize on the rising Chinese currency.</p>
<p>Agincourt Capital, which was founded late last year, is targeting a return of 10% to 22% a year by investing in commercial and residential properties in Australia, Mr. Nobrega said. Home prices in Australia have quadrupled in a little more than 20 years, according to the Real Estate Institute of Australia.</p>
<p>A convertible bond typically is a corporate bond with an equity option embedded in it; bondholders can convert their debt into shares of the company at an agreed-upon price. This option allows the issuer to sell the bond with a lower interest rate than a straight bond.</p>
<p>In Agincourt&#8217;s planned yuan-denominated convertible offering, bondholders could convert into equity in unlisted Agincourt for the first three years, said William Nobrega, managing partner at U.S.-based real-estate consultant Conrad Group Inc., which is advising Agincourt Capital on the deal. The officials declined to specify what conditions would need to be met for investors to convert their bonds to equity or at what price.</p>
<p>Agincourt will seek to offer a yield of around 4%, payable in Australian dollars, and has hired Deutsche Bank AG and a Chinese bank to help arrange the issue, Mr. Turnbull said. He declined to name the Chinese bank. A Deutsche Bank spokeswoman declined to comment.</p>
<p>The fund wants to exploit the flood of offshore yuan and dearth of investments to put it into, Mr. Nobrega said. Strong demand for yuan investments means bond issuers can raise money at low interest rates.</p>
<p>Agincourt is targeting investors from mainland China and overseas who hold yuan and are looking for a strong return from Australian real estate. Mr. Turnbull said he has been in the Australian real-estate and financial-services industry for 25 years. Mr. Nobrega said converting the debt to Agincourt equity would give investors indirect ownership of Australian real-estate assets.</p>
<p>&#8220;We expect the majority of investors will convert into equity,&#8221; he said.</p>
<p>Issuance of offshore yuan bonds amounts to US$13.8 billion, according to data provider Dealogic, while yuan deposits in Hong Kong jumped fivefold in April from a year earlier to 510.7 billion yuan (US$78.8 billion), according to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, boosted by expectations that the value of the Chinese currency will increase.</p>
<p>Agincourt expects the yuan and Australian dollar to rise hand in hand, Mr. Nobrega said, as the two countries&#8217; economic ties get closer. &#8220;There&#8217;s no reason to expect that the Aussie dollar is going to do anything but appreciate, unless you think the world is going to stop using commodities,&#8221; he said.</p>
<p>To view the original article, please click <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303745304576358910125696034.html">here</a>.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>The Conrad Group&#8217;s William Nobrega speaks to Asian Investor about Agincourt Capital&#8217;s new RMB fund</title>
		<link>http://conradgroupinc.com/media-coverage/the-conrad-groups-william-nobrega-speaks-to-asian-investor-about-agincourt-capitals-new-rmb-fund</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Aug 2011 20:06:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Media Coverage]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p><strong>This article originally appeared in Asian Investor. </strong></p>
<p>With the launch of its RMB secured convertible-bond fund, real-estate fund manager Agincourt Capital hopes to attract investors wary of locking up assets for five years or more.</p>
<p>Hong Kong-headquartered property specialist&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>This article originally appeared in Asian Investor. </strong></p>
<p>With the launch of its RMB secured convertible-bond fund, real-estate fund manager Agincourt Capital hopes to attract investors wary of locking up assets for five years or more.</p>
<p>Hong Kong-headquartered property specialist Agincourt Capital’s launch of its new offering today is unusual for several reasons.</p>
<p>It is the first renminbi-denominated and Australian dollar-settled secured convertible-bond (CB) fund; it will raise RMB from largely Chinese professional investors to invest solely in Australian real estate; and it offers three different risk levels within the one fund.</p>
<p>Agincourt has an AUM target of A$500 million ($536 million) – to be raised through the issue of CBs by the fund – and already has “significant” soft commitments and several anchor investors, says William Nobrega, managing partner of the Conrad Group, a strategic partner of the fund manager.</p>
<p>The firms expect the bonds to issue in eight weeks – by mid-September at the latest – and the entire issue to close within 30 days after that.</p>
<p>The synthetic three-year, 4%-coupon bond is secured by real-estate assets in Australia, with a maturity of five years. During the first three years, the bond investors can convert their debentures into equity.</p>
<p>Once issued, the bonds will be listed and traded on the Hong Kong exchange’s secondary market, as with other RMB bonds. Nobrega admits the liquidity is likely to be low initially, but points to the potential for significant volumes.</p>
<p>The company is likely to list the fund on HKEx four or five years after the launch, since most bondholders will have converted to equity by year three, he adds. The other option is to wind down the fund.</p>
<p>The product’s unusual structure is designed to attract investors wary of five-year or longer lock-up periods typical of many private-equity and real-estate funds, and aims to offer greater liquidity and visibility, says Nobrega. This is further reflected in the ability to select the level of risk within the fund.</p>
<p>Investors can choose one of three special-purpose vehicle (SPV) structures – commercial, residential and blended – to meet the risk-return profiles of different institutional and high-net-worth investors.</p>
<p>SPV Core will invest in office and retail buildings with five- to 10-year leases and will achieve a total annual return (rental income and capital gain, net of fees) of 10–12%.</p>
<p>SPV Opportunity will invest in residential development projects in the centres of highest population growth and achieve a total net annual return of 18–22%.</p>
<p>SPV Fusion will invest in core commercial property plus special situations created by the 2008 financial crisis and targets a total annual income and capital return in a range of 15–17%, net of fees.</p>
<p>Only once the fund is closed will Agincourt know how much of each type of assets it needs to source. However, Nobrega doesn’t foresee any capacity issues as regards finding sufficient property investments of each type, noting Agincourt has already identified a potential A$300 million in real-estate assets.</p>
<p>Nor is there expected to be any shortage of demand from investors. In Hong Kong, RMB deposits have grown to Rmb548.8 billion as of the end of May, but interest rates of term deposits is less than 1%. Investors are looking for higher-yielding investments, such as dim-sum (or CNH) bonds.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Australian real-estate developers have difficulty getting loans from the local banks that have been cautious since the global financial crisis, and thus have to seek funding from alternative channels, says Craig Turnbull, CEO of Agincourt Capital.</p>
<p>“The opportunity assets include distressed assets and land opportunities,” he adds. “There are three capital cities in Australia that are growing very fast and demanding land for housing development; there are other cities developing mixed-used real-estate projects for both residential and commercial purposes.”</p>
<p>Turnbull believes the core assets will appeal to institutional investors, while the HNWIs will be more interested in opportunity assets.</p>
<p>The weakness of the new bond offering, as with other synthetic RMB bonds, is that it is not rated. “But in six months’ time it will be rated,” says Nobrega. “We chose a leading Chinese rating agency, Dagong Global Credit, which boldly downgraded the US last year.”</p>
<p>“We are now finalising the syndicate consisting of a group of investment banks to place the bond offering in the primary market,” he adds. “Then at the next stage, the lead manager will take care of listing the bond.”</p>
<p>MDS Financial will be part of the syndicate and one or other of two major investment banks will lead-manage the deal. Deutsche Bank is the bond trustee, escrow agent and settlement agent for the fund, says Nobrega.</p>
<p>To view the original article, please click <a href="http://conradgroupinc.com/dev/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/7-13-2011-Asian-Investor.pdf">here</a>.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>The Conrad Group&#8217;s William Nobrega speaks to the Financial News about Agincourt Capital&#8217;s yuan-denominated convertible bond</title>
		<link>http://conradgroupinc.com/media-coverage/the-conrad-groups-william-nobrega-speaks-to-the-financial-news-about-agincourt-capitals-yuan-denominated-convertible-bond</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Aug 2011 19:40:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Media Coverage]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://conradgroupinc.com/?p=1311</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<div>
<p><strong>This article originally appeared in the Financial News. </strong></p>
</div>
<p><em>A UK-based asset management start-up plans to sell what could be the first offshore yuan denominated convertible bond, and intends to invest the money in Australia&#8217;s booming real estate</em>&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div>
<p><strong>This article originally appeared in the Financial News. </strong></p>
</div>
<p><em>A UK-based asset management start-up plans to sell what could be the first offshore yuan denominated convertible bond, and intends to invest the money in Australia&#8217;s booming real estate market.</em></p>
<p>Agincourt Capital Management seeks to raise the equivalent of about $1bn from the five year bond, which would be convertible into equity in Agincourt, said Craig Turnbull, the firm&#8217;s founder and investment director. The bonds would be payable in Australian dollars</p>
<p>It would be the first yuan-denominated convertible bond sold outside of mainland China, Turnbull said, joining a flood of &#8220;dim sum&#8221; offshore yuan bonds seeking to capitalise on the rising Chinese currency.</p>
<p>Agincourt Capital, which was founded late last year, is targeting a return of 10% to 22% a year by investing in commercial and residential properties in Australia, Nobrega said. Home prices in Australia have quadrupled in a little more than 20 years, according to the Real Estate Institute of Australia.</p>
<p>A convertible bond typically is a corporate bond with an equity option embedded in it; bondholders can convert their debt into shares of the company at an agreed upon price. This option allows the issuer to sell the bond with a lower interest rate than a straight bond.</p>
<p>In Agincourt&#8217;s planned yuan-denominated convertible offering, bondholders could convert into equity in unlisted Agincourt for the first three years, said William Nobrega, managing partner at US-based real estate consultant Conrad Group, which is advising Agincourt Capital on the deal. The officials declined to specify what conditions would need to be met for investors to convert their bonds to equity or at what price.</p>
<p>Agincourt will seek to offer a yield of around 4%, payable in Australian dollars, and has hired Deutsche Bank and a Chinese bank to help arrange the issue, Turnbull said. He declined to name the Chinese bank. A Deutsche Bank spokeswoman declined to comment.</p>
<p>The fund wants to exploit the flood of offshore yuan and dearth of investments to put it into, Nobrega said. Strong demand for yuan investments means bond issuers can raise money at low interest rates.</p>
<p>Agincourt is targeting investors from mainland China and overseas who hold yuan and are looking for a strong return from Australian real estate. Turnbull said he has been in the Australian real estate and financial services industry for 25 years. Nobrega said converting the debt to Agincourt equity would give investors indirect ownership of Australian real estate assets.</p>
<p>&#8220;We expect the majority of investors will convert into equity,&#8221; he said.</p>
<p>Issuance of offshore yuan bonds amounts to US$13.8bn, according to data provider Dealogic, while yuan deposits in Hong Kong jumped fivefold in April from a year earlier to 510.7bn yuan (€55bn), according to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, boosted by expectations that the value of the Chinese currency will increase.</p>
<p>Agincourt expects the yuan and Australian dollar to rise hand in hand, Nobrega said, as the two countries&#8217; economic ties get closer. &#8220;There&#8217;s no reason to expect that the Aussie dollar is going to do anything but appreciate, unless you think the world is going to stop using commodities,&#8221; he said.</p>
<p>To view the original article, please click <a href="http://www.efinancialnews.com/story/2011-06-02/agincourt-yuan-bond">here</a>.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>The Conrad Group&#8217;s William Nobrega speaks to El Nuevo Herald about the debt crisis in Washington</title>
		<link>http://conradgroupinc.com/media-coverage/the-conrad-groups-william-nobrega-speaks-to-el-nuevo-herald-about-the-debt-crisis-in-washington-7-26-11</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Aug 2011 18:59:38 +0000</pubDate>
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				<category><![CDATA[Media Coverage]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://conradgroupinc.com/?p=1302</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><strong>The article originally appeared in the Wall Street Journal.</strong></p>
<p><em>Hipotecas y préstamos más altos pueden encarecer la vida</em></p>
<p>By Douglas Hanks</p>
<p>Mientras Barry Johnson se codeaba el martes con líderes de los negocios antes de una sesión sobre las finanzas&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>The article originally appeared in the Wall Street Journal.</strong></p>
<p><em>Hipotecas y préstamos más altos pueden encarecer la vida</em></p>
<p>By Douglas Hanks</p>
<p>Mientras Barry Johnson se codeaba el martes con líderes de los negocios antes de una sesión sobre las finanzas locales, el presidente de la Cámara de Comercio del Gran Miami chocó una y otra vez con lo que él llamó “el elefante en la sala de estar”: el temor de que Washington pudiera dejar de pagar sus cuentas.</p>
<p>“Hubo cierta ansiedad, mientras la gente ve que las conversaciones continúan y que ninguna de las dos partes cede un ápice”, dijo Johnson, quien se reunió con unos 40 líderes empresariales en el Ayuntamiento para un encuentro con el alcalde de Miami-Dade Carlos Giménez. “Es el temor de lo desconocido: qué es lo que significaría si de hecho no se llega a un acuerdo esta semana”.</p>
<p>Esa es la pregunta que se hacen todos en Washington, pero que también se cierne sobre la economía del sur de la Florida mientras propietarios de negocios, analistas y líderes electos sopesan dos alternativas que antes parecían inconcebibles.</p>
<p>¿Se vera obligado Washington a parar de enviar cheques si los republicanos y los demócratas no se ponen de acuerdo sobre cómo aumentar la autoridad del Tesoro para tomar prestado? Incluso si se llegara a un acuerdo, ¿llevará el impasse y la falta de una solución a largo plazo a que las agencias de crédito bajen el puntaje a la deuda de EEUU por primera vez en la historia?</p>
<p>Cualquiera de estas dos alternativas daría un duro choque a la frágil economía del sur de la Florida, aunque las consecuencias exactas no están claras. Pero las posibilidades se centraron alrededor de cuatro temas principales:</p>
<p>• Costos más altos para pedir prestado: Las tasas de las hipotecas de vivienda tienden a subir y bajar con el interés que Washington paga sobre pagarés llamados letras o títulos del Tesoro. Si la deuda de Washington baja de puntuación, podría verse obligado a pagar más interés para poder vender sus letras del Tesoro, lo cual a su vez aumentaría el costo de los préstamos al consumidor.</p>
<p>Y no se trata sólo de las hipotecas. Si Washington se ve forzado a pagar una tasa de interés más alta en su deuda, los analistas esperan que los bancos y las compañías de tarjetas de crédito también cobren más por prestar.</p>
<p>• Cortes al crédito de gobiernos locales: Moody’s decidirá esta semana si el excelente puntaje de crédito del Condado Broward, conocido como “Aaa’’, está en peligro a causa de la crisis de la deuda de Washingtons.</p>
<p>Debido a que es inusual que los gobiernos locales tengan mejores calificaciones de deuda que el gobierno nacional, Moody está revisando toda la deuda calificada de AAA en Estados Unidos para ver quién corre más riesgo de perder puntaje si Estados Unidos pierde su codiciado puntaje de Aaa, dijo David Jacobson, portavoz de Moody’s.</p>
<p>• <strong>Impulso a monedas extranjeras: </strong>Miami cuenta generalmente con cierta protección contra las malas noticias en la economía de EEUU, debido a su exposición a los dólares extranjeros. Y, si la deuda de Estados Unidos resultara degradada como de segunda, los inversionistas se surtirán de divisas extranjeras fuertes, incluyendo el real brasileño, dijo William Nobrega, socio gerente de The Conrad Group en Miami. Eso será provocado en parte por una liquidación de acciones en Wall Street, dijo.</p>
<p>El real “está considerado una moneda segura”, dijo Nobrega, quien sirve de asesor de fondos de inversiones, principalmente en Asia. “Es seguro que lo verán subir si nos bajan la puntuación de crédito”.</p>
<p>• Economía inestable: A medida que se acerca la fecha tope del 2 de agosto para implementar un acuerdo con respecto a la deuda, la ansiedad de que no se llegue a acuerdo alguno podría perder control.</p>
<p>To  view the original article, please click <a href="http://conradgroupinc.com/dev/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/El-Nuevo-Herald-7.26.11.pdf">here</a>.</p>
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		<title>The Conrad Group&#8217;s William Nobrega speaks to The Miami Herald about the debt crisis in Washington</title>
		<link>http://conradgroupinc.com/media-coverage/the-conrad-groups-william-nobrega-speaks-to-the-miami-herald-about-the-debt-crisis-in-washington</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Aug 2011 18:49:58 +0000</pubDate>
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				<category><![CDATA[Media Coverage]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://conradgroupinc.com/?p=1298</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><strong>This article originally appeared in The Miami Herald. </strong></p>
<p><em>Higher mortgage rates, costlier loans for governments and general chaos could come to South Florida from Washington’s debt woes. But watch for Brazilian condo buyers, too.</em></p>
<p>By Douglas Hanks</p>
<p>Miami and&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>This article originally appeared in The Miami Herald. </strong></p>
<p><em>Higher mortgage rates, costlier loans for governments and general chaos could come to South Florida from Washington’s debt woes. But watch for Brazilian condo buyers, too.</em></p>
<p>By Douglas Hanks</p>
<p>Miami and Miami-Dade do not have AAA ratings on their debt, and so are not part of Moody’s first wave of rating reviews, Jacobson said. But if the U.S. loses its AAA ratings, all debt would eventually get a second look.</p>
<p>“Credits across the spectrum are going to be affected to some degree if the United States gets knocked off triple-A,’’ he said.</p>
<p>BOOST TO FOREIGN CURRENCIES: Miami usually enjoys a certain hedge against bad news in the U.S. economy, since it has so much exposure to foreign dollars. And should the United States find its debt knocked down to second-tier status, investors will stock up on strong foreign currencies, including the Brazilian real, said William Nobrega, managing partner of the Conrad Group in Miami. That will be prompted in part by a stock sell-off on Wall Street, he said.</p>
<p>The real is “perceived as a currency of safety,’’ said Nobrega, who advises investment funds, mainly in Asia. “You will definitely see it rise if we’re downgraded.”</p>
<p>That would give Brazilians more purchasing power, which would probably prompt more of them to invest in South Florida.</p>
<p>Ron Shuffield, head of the Esslinger-Wooten-Maxwell real estate brokerage in Miami, predicted chaos on Wall Street would send more foreign dollars into Miami real estate, similar to what happened after technology stocks crashed a decade ago.</p>
<p>“For foreign investors, they’re going to continue to see the U.S. as the most stable market in the world,” he said. “While it won’t be comforting to see that the government is defaulting, they would still see this as a far safer place to put their money than somewhere else.”</p>
<p>AN UNSETTLED ECONOMY: As the announced Aug. 2 deadline nears for implementing a debt deal, anxiety over the lack of one could take on its own momentum.</p>
<p>Edwin Rivera, co-founder of the digital branding firm Credelis, expected to see national brands sign-on this month for a new line of clothing that interacts with electronic advertising. But the deals were delayed in recent weeks, and Rivera suspects the debt impasse is at work.</p>
<p>“You’re seeing people getting very conservative, even brands that have a lot of money, brands that were solid,” he said.</p>
<p>At BrandsMart, sales are up this summer and CEO Michael Perlman said expansion plans are underway. He sees the housing market as a much bigger hurdle than the debt talks in Washington. But at ME Productions, an event planning firm in Pembroke Park, the sales team is bracing for a drop in corporate bookings should Congress and the White House not reach a deal soon.</p>
<p>“We haven’t felt it, but we will,” CEO Hal Etkin said. Corporate clients “do not like uncertainty.’’</p>
<p>To view the original article, please click <a href="http://conradgroupinc.com/dev/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/The-Miami-Herald-7.26.11.pdf">here</a>.</p>
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		<title>The Conrad Group&#8217;s William Nobrega speaks to the Financial Post about investing abroad</title>
		<link>http://conradgroupinc.com/media-coverage/the-conrad-groups-william-nobrega-speaks-to-the-financial-post-about-investing-abroad</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Aug 2011 18:41:30 +0000</pubDate>
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				<category><![CDATA[Media Coverage]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://conradgroupinc.com/?p=1295</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><strong>This article originally appeared in the Financial Post. </strong></p>
<p>By Nick Olivari</p>
<div>
<p>NEW YORK – The previously unthinkable, a U.S. debt repayment crisis, is now giving serious thinkers pause. Investors regard Treasury bills as being the safest place to</p></div><p>&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>This article originally appeared in the Financial Post. </strong></p>
<p>By Nick Olivari</p>
<div>
<p>NEW YORK – The previously unthinkable, a U.S. debt repayment crisis, is now giving serious thinkers pause. Investors regard Treasury bills as being the safest place to put funds during in a crisis. But if U.S. debt itself is causing the crisis, where does the safe money go?</p>
<p>Financial advisers are starting to grapple with the issue of what might happen if the titanic Congressional debate becomes a full-blown debt repayment showdown.</p>
<p>“Politicians are fiddling while this thing is starting to burn around us,” said William Nobrega, managing partner of the Miami, Florida-based Conrad Group, an investment and strategic advisory services firm.</p>
<p>Demand has remained strong for the staggering $14.3 trillion in debt outstanding. Despite huge issuance in recent years, U.S. bonds have held up well and rates have stayed near historic lows, helped by Federal Reserve buying.</p>
<p>The debt issued by the United States is perceived as having the lowest default risk of any nation. And the Treasury market has already weathered its share of budget battles and shutdowns – five over the past three decades.</p>
<p>The difference now is that the economy is struggling to regain its footing from the crisis of 2008, with the added weight of monumental debt on its shoulders.</p>
<p>“We’ve never been in worse shape,” said Jacob Gold, president of Scottsdale, Arizona-based Jacob Gold &amp; Associates, Inc., which provides high net-worth individuals and companies with investment strategies and wealth management solutions. “I don’t feel that there is a comparison of U.S. finances in the past.”</p>
<p>As a result, financial advisers and investors may have to prepare for a wide range of scenarios, from total government shutdown to a longer, drawn-out period of uncertainty. Here are some ideas.</p>
<p><strong>INVESTING ABROAD</strong></p>
<p>The obvious investment play is to move away from U.S. government assets. But it’s not that simple.</p>
<p>The economies most accessible to global investors are also the most troubled. In Europe’s monetary union, Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain grapple with sovereign debt crises. Japan was already in the grips of economic stagnation when the March earthquake, tsunami and nuclear plant catastrophes pushed it back into its second recession in three years.</p>
<p>One alternative is to move into commodity-based economies that might hold up best. A financial crisis that pushes the dollar lower might well favor the South African rand, the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar and or the Brazilian real, said The Conrad Group’s Nobrega.</p>
<p>An Australian government 10-year bond yields 5.23 percent, a Canadian 10-year bond 3.06 percent, the South African 10-year 8.215 percent and the Brazilian Real 10-year government bond 12.49 percent.</p>
<p>The caveat, of course, is that the United States is so deeply integrated with the global economy that a U.S. debt crisis would hit many nations. Even countries with vibrant and growing economies like China would be hit, as the largest U.S. debt holder and trading partner.</p>
<p><strong>BUY PROTECTION</strong></p>
<p>“There is clearly a possibility that the U.S., as with many sovereign issuers, may have a technical default,” said Tim Haywood, London-based investment director for fixed income at GAM where he co-manages $11.4 billion.</p>
<p>He said this would be “a monumental shock” to investors. Treasuries play “the role as the globally-accepted risk-free categorization.”</p>
<p>A technical default, a breach of some aspect or condition of the loan rather than a failure to make payment, would clearly indicate fiscal problems, and undermine that view.</p>
<p>The ramifications are so dire that most analysts expect U.S. and other global monetary officials will take every step to avoid it. Some big investing firms like Haywood’s have bought some insurance, using credit default swaps to protect against U.S. problems.</p>
<p>“We have bought credit protection on banks across the world, including some in the U.S., since the wider finance sector would be injured by this unlikely event,” said Haywood.</p>
<p>But such hedges are imperfect at best, and impractical for smaller investors.</p>
<p>Funds like Eaton Vance Global Macro Absolute Return take long and short positions in a wide range of countries to hedge risk. Direxion Monthly 10 Year Note Bear 2X Mutual Fund is one of a number of risk-leveraged funds that gain value as U.S. Treasury rates rise, but lose when rates fall.</p>
<p><strong>NO WAY TO GAME IT?</strong></p>
<p>Investors should not spend too much time worrying about dubious hedging strategies for a full-on U.S. debt default, said Guy Stern, head of Multi-Asset Management, who helps oversee Edinburgh-based Standard Life Investments Global Absolute Return Strategies (GARS) portfolio. SLI oversees $251 billion in total assets.</p>
<p>“We think the best way to construct portfolios is not to position for a specific event, or to hedge against a specific event,” Stern said. “What we try to do is look at the economic and market environment we expect and access returns from really diverse resources.”</p>
<p>He said investing in one scenario, such as buying bonds of fiscally disciplined Germany, while selling fiscally-stressed Japan’s bonds, would offer solid returns in any event, but in the event of a U.S. sovereign debt crisis, would provide exceptional returns.</p>
<p>With the risk of debt calamity in the air, some say that fund investors should look beyond yields at safety features. Tony Crexcenzi, Pimco’s executive vice president, market strategist and portfolio manager, said it’s prudent to find funds that offer a half-point lower overall yield, but offer to hedge against risk of ‘tail’ events, the so-called 100-year storms.</p>
<p><strong>THE DOLLAR FALL, ALL OVER AGAIN</strong></p>
<p>The wild card for investors is the weakening dollar, a byproduct of the U.S. fiscal impasse. The currency has lost 37 percent of its value since its last peak in mid-2001. While the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500 index has fallen below its 2000 peak, commodities and emerging markets have enjoyed positive returns.</p>
<p>In the absence of widespread global uncertainty or volatility, Mauro F. Guillen, director of the Lauder Institute at the Wharton School in Philadelphia, expects the dollar to depreciate another 10 to 20 percent against the euro EUR over the next few years.</p>
<p>“If you are a Japanese, European or Chinese investor, you want returns in yen, euros or renminbi and you have to think very carefully about the value of the dollar,” Guillen said.</p>
<p>The 19-commodity Reuters-Jefferies CRB index is up 69 percent from when the dollar index peaked in 2001. The PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking DBC is an ETF made up of 14 futures contracts tracking the broad commodity sectors.</p>
<p><strong>DOWN BUT NOT OUT</strong></p>
<p>Amid all the rhetorical arguments on spending versus taxes coming out of Washington, D.C. as the U.S. butts against the debt ceiling, the overwhelming fact is that the U.S. has created as much national debt over the last seven years ($7 trillion) as it’s ever had historically. The good news is, if there is political will, there’s a way out of the doom-and-gloom scenario.</p>
<p>Despite the size of the U.S. debt, “I don’t feel like there will be a collapse in confidence in the U.S.,” said Jacob Gold.</p>
<p>Gold advised diversification and said it would be unwise to bet completely against the U.S., although the government will have to find solutions to the debt and deficit issues.</p>
<p>“There is absolutely a place, within a portfolio, for long-term U.S. Treasuries,” said Gold, advising some intermediate and long-term U.S. Treasuries for a portion of the portfolio.</p>
<p>His picks, even in a rising rate environment, include The Pimco Real Return Fund LP, Fidelity Inflation Protected Bond Fund LP, and the Fidelity Strategic Income Fund LP.</p>
<p>The deepest recession since the 1930s and two wars have blasted big holes in the government’s budget and pushed deficits in recent years to 10 percent of gross domestic product. A stronger economic recovery could certainly help.</p>
<p>“The least controversial way to reduce the deficit is to get the economy growing again,” says Lauder Institute’s Guillen.</p>
<p>To view the original article, please click <a href="http://business.financialpost.com/2011/05/27/investing-in-a-u-s-budget-meltdown-good-luck/">here</a>.</p>
</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>American politics accelerate the decline of the dollar and the rise of the Chinese yuan</title>
		<link>http://conradgroupinc.com/blog/american-politics-accelerate-the-decline-of-the-dollar-and-the-rise-of-the-chinese-yuan</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Aug 2011 18:10:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>It is often said that reality can trump a good fiction novel anytime. In the case of the United States Congress, we have the basis for a fiction novel that the average reader could never have imagined to be true.&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It is often said that reality can trump a good fiction novel anytime. In the case of the United States Congress, we have the basis for a fiction novel that the average reader could never have imagined to be true. In the past 10 years, we have amassed trillions of dollars in debt from two unfunded wars, an unfunded prescription drug plan, unfunded tax cuts as well as the capital required to stave off a depression as the result of the global financial crisis. The world now watches in disbelief as selfish children deny the facts surrounding their current situation.</p>
<p>We are the tools of our own demise, given that a downgrade in our credit rating is now a certainty (two rating agencies have already down-graded our debt), and this will, of course, precipitate a rapid depreciation of the U.S. dollar. So where is the upside? Well, if you are holding RMB, you are holding the next reserve currency, which will most assuredly be backed by a basket of precious metals. How long will it take for the inevitable to occur? It took less than 10 years for the British pound to be replaced by the U.S. dollar and that was during the industrial age. At this rate, five years or less would be a plausible bet. To read more about William&#8217;s take on the debt crisis in Washington, please click <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/07/26/2332283_p2/washingtons-debt-crisis-could.html">here</a>.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Thunderbird Global Business Dialogue, Glendale, AZ (Nov. 10-11, 2011)</title>
		<link>http://conradgroupinc.com/events/thunderbird-global-business-dialogue-glendale-az-nov-10-11-2011</link>
		<comments>http://conradgroupinc.com/events/thunderbird-global-business-dialogue-glendale-az-nov-10-11-2011#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Jul 2011 22:21:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[business]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[The Conrad Group]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[William Norbrega]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://conradgroupinc.com/?p=1238</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Thunderbird Global Business Dialogue will focus on “Redefining Global Leadership,” and discussion will include an exchange of ideas related to effective leadership in the new world economy; accelerating business across cultures; financial solutions for global growth and prosperity; navigating emerging markets and beyond; technology and its impact in an interconnected world; and business’s role in social and economic prosperity worldwide.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Conrad Group&#8217;s William Nobrega will be speaking on a panel at Thunderbird Global Business Dialogue, Glendale, AZ (Nov. 10-11, 2011).</p>
<p><strong>Event overview: </strong>An elite group of global business executives, global leaders, government officials, NGO representatives, and thought leaders from around the world will unite on Thunderbird&#8217;s campus Nov. 10-11 for two days of leading-edge dialogue, networking and collaboration on today’s most pressing global business topics. The Thunderbird Global Business Dialogue will focus on “Redefining Global Leadership,” and discussion will include an exchange of ideas related to effective leadership in the new world economy; accelerating business across cultures; financial solutions for global growth and prosperity; navigating emerging markets and beyond; technology and its impact in an interconnected world; and business’s role in social and economic prosperity worldwide.</p>
<p>To learn more about the Thunderbird&#8217;s Global Business Dialogue, click <a href="http://thunderbird.edu/about_thunderbird/events/11-11-11/global_business_dialogue/index.htm">here</a>.</p>
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